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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd