Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
