Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
